Analyst firm Gartner has published its latest forecasts for the recorded music market, predicting global revenues of $6.3 billion this year, up from $5.9 billion in 2010. It sees this rising to $6.8 billion in 2012, and then $7.7 billion in 2015. Gartner has also broken this down into spending on subscription services, downloads and personalisation services. In 2011, it sees subscription services generating $532.1 million of end-user spending, versus $3.6 billion for downloads and $2.2 billion for personalisation. That’s 8.4%, 57.3% and 34.3% of overall spending respectively. By 2015, it thinks the split will be more like 28.7%, 52.4% and 18.9%, so $2.2 billion from subscriptions and $4.1 billion from downloads. Gartner sees consumer spending on physical music formats (CDs and LPs) falling from $15 billion in 2010 to $10 billion in 2015, meaning digital still won’t have overtaken physical by that point.

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