Google is currently battling another technology company, Oracle, in a patent and copyright infringement trial, which yesterday saw fascinating revelations regarding Google’s music plans. An internal company presentation from 2010 included a slide titled “Android Music Opportunity – $1.3 – $2B business by 2013”.
It predicted that Google would launch its download store and cloud locker services in 2010, predicting user growth and revenues for both through to 2013. The predictions suggest that as a base, Google expected 13.4m download users by 2012, generating $571m of gross revenues, with 70% of that going to rightsholders. A separate ‘Aggressive’ table suggests that this could have been 20.1m users generating $857m of gross revenues from music downloaders.
Google also hoped for 9.4m music locker users generating $337m of gross revenues – by paying $2.99 a month each – in 2012. Although its aggressive case suggested this could be as high as 17.4m users generating $625m of gross revenues.
Overall, Google hoped that by 2013, Android music would be worth $1.4bn in 2013, or $2.4bn if things went really well. Except actually launching these services took a lot longer than expected, not to mention the fact that Google’s music locker remains free.
Source: Business Insider