Next week, Microsoft is holding a big press launch in New York for its Windows Phone 8 operating system, complete with new devices from Nokia. Can they boost Windows Phone (and its related music ecosystem) beyond 5% of the smartphone market? Bernstein Research analyst Pierre Ferragu has poured cold water on the idea. “Our research shows that for many years, poor sales of Windows-based phones stem from a deep and stable lack of consumer interest for the product,” he writes in a note to investors. “The lack of consumer interest for Windows-based phones has been very consistent in marketing surveys we have carried out across the globe over the last several years. The situation of Windows in mobile phones is now very unlikely to revert.” Ouch.