Mobile industry analyst Horace Dediu has published a post comparing the markets for apps and digital music, claiming that “apps alone (without services) probably generate more than four times the revenues of digital music”. He makes his workings clear based on analysis of Google and Apple’s public numbers: “It would be safe to assume that app developers are collecting over $3 billion/month or a run-rate of $36 billion a year. And this rate is rising rapidly,” writes Dediu. “Now compare this with the music industry. IFPI reported that digital music revenues in 2012 were $5.6 billion and that total recorded music sales in 2012 were $16.5. Even if we assume a generous 10% increase in music sales for 2013 we still have an app industry generating revenues at twice the rate of recorded music.” We’re not so sure we buy his doomladen view of what this all means, though: “If the behavior of users is shifting to this model then the victims of the mobile devices will not be just the PC makers. It will be all of big media. The Appocalypse is coming.”
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