Another take on the future for mobility? “Apple and Google both won. Apple now sells around 10% of all the 1.8bn (and growing) phones sold on Earth each year and Android the next 50%, split roughly between say 2/3 Google Android outside China and 1/3 non-Google Android inside China. Over time this will expand such that smartphones take almost all phone sales – perhaps 400m or 500m units a quarter, with Apple taking the high-end and Android the rest, and there’ll be close to 4bn smartphones on earth.” That’s analyst Benedict Evans writing, who now works at VC firm Andreessen Horowitz. “For the first time ever, the tech industry is selling not just to big corporations or middle-class families but to four fifths of all the adults on earth – it is selling to people who don’t have mains electricity or running water and substitute spending on cigarettes for mobile. This means we have accelerating complexity in three ways: we go from middle class families to everyone, we go from the PC to mobile, and we go from the simplicity of the web browser, mouse and keyboard model that lasted twenty years (thanks Marc!) to these complex, multi-layered devices where everything is still changing.”

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