It’s hardly a shock to suggest that Spotify’s $1-for-three-months premium trials increase its subscribers. But Midia Research has calculated how much this boost is worth.
“On average, Spotify’s global subscriber base grew by a net total of 2.8 million each quarter between Q4 2015 and Q4 2017 in the quarters that these ‘super trials’ were not running, but by 7.5 million in the quarters that they did,” reported the research firm on Friday.
“In 2016 and 2017, Spotify’s European and North American subscriber bases each grew at an average of one million subscribers in quarters without trials and three million and two million respectively in quarters with them.”
Midia has also been using its crystal ball to forecast Spotify’s future subscriptions growth, based on existing trends. “If it continues its current operating strategy Spotify should reach 93 million subscribers by the end of 2018. By comparison, Apple Music is likely to have hit around 56 million subscribers by Q4 2018, with its rate of net new monthly subscribers having increased to 2 million in 2018.”
The known unknown factor here, though, is new country launches: could a summer debut in India, as has been rumoured, help push Spotify past 100 million subscribers by Christmas?
For its part, Spotify published some financial guidance this afternoon, suggesting that it expects to reach between 92 million and 96 million subscribers by the end of 2018.