Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty – a veteran Apple-watcher – has made some interesting predictions for the future of that company’s ‘services’ business. That includes Apple Music, which she forecasts will grow to 164 million paying subscribers by 2023, turning it from a $4bn business in 2018 to one generating $13.7bn of annual revenues in 2023. If her predictions are correct, that could see Apple Music’s penetration among Apple customers rise from 5% now to 14% in five years‘ time.
That comes with an accompanying forecast for the iTunes store’s decline: Huberty thinks it’ll fall from $3bn of annual revenues this year to $1.3bn by 2023 – an exact reverse of Apple Music’s penetration arc among Apple customers, from 14% now to 5% in 2023.
Overall, the Morgan Stanley note predicts that Apple’s services division (which includes apps, iCloud and AppleCare among other product lines) will grow from $37.2bn of annual revenues in 2018 to $101bn by 2023 – by which point Huberty expects 50% of Apple users to be paying for apps, an average of $220 each per year.