The rate of growth in global streaming revenues (retail, not trade) is going to slow down every year between now and 2026. Boo! But wait: those revenues are going to more than double between 2018 and 2026. Hurray! This is all according to Midia Research’s latest report, which forecasts that global streaming spending will grow from $19.6bn in 2018 to $45.3bn in 2026.

“From 2018 onwards streaming growth will lessen each year, falling from 29% in 2018 to 7% in 2026,” warned Midia’s Mark Mulligan. “The slowdown in revenue growth reflects maturation of developed streaming markets such as the US, UK, Sweden, Netherlands and Australia. Longer term growth will be driven by emerging markets such as Brazil, Mexico and India as well as later adopting major markets Germany and Japan.”

Also interesting: the report’s emphasis on retail figures rather than trade income. “The difference between trade revenues and retail revenues will widen between now and 2026. This reflects a number of factors that will see streaming services improve their margins and thus widen the gap on label revenues,” wrote Mulligan. And those factors are? “1. Rising publishing related rates. Increased share of royalty pot going to non-music content. Increased share of royalty pot going to non-label music. Potential long-term future label rate cuts (e.g. relief for price hikes).” He suggested that the latter won’t happen in this year’s licensing renewals, but rather next time round.

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