When Goldman Sachs published its ‘Music In The Air’ report in 2017, predicting trade revenues from paid streaming of $28bn by 2030, it sparked excitement and controversy in equal measure – the latter once people wondered which Goldman Sachs clients would most benefit from sky-high predictions. Keep your pinch of salt handy, then, for the updated version of the report, although interestingly the predicted figure for paid streaming in 2030 is now slightly lower: $27.5bn, although once ad-supported streaming revenues are added, the total streaming trade revenues that year are expected to be $37.2bn.
More big numbers? Goldman Sachs reckons there’ll be 690 million users of paid streaming globally by 2023, and 1.15 billion by 2030 – with 68% of the latter coming from “emerging markets” according to MBW, which has seen the new report.
It also expects Spotify to still have a 32% share of audio streaming subscriptions in 2030. Expect to see many of these figures popping up in pitch decks and conference presentations in the coming months.
Our other quibble, however, concerns the timescale: how many reports put out in 2008 – before Spotify’s launch – could have forecast the music market in 2019 with any degree of accuracy? Putting much store in numbers published in 2019 for 2030 seems rash, to say the least. But as something to pump up investor confidence even more, the Goldman Sachs report will undoubtedly serve its purpose in the shorter term.