Saxo Bank is a Danish investment bank, and each year it publishes a set of ten “outrageous predictions”, which are a deliberate excuse to initiate some year-end debate. The précis for its ten predictions includes the line, “it’s no longer a question of if we get a socioeconomic revolution, but a question of when and how,” and other predictions feel extreme but vaguely possible: “US inflation reaches above 15% on wage-price spiral” and “India joins the Gulf Cooperation Council as a non-voting member”.
Anyway, amongst all that geopolitical angst is this: “Spotify disrupted due to NFT-based digital rights platform” – perhaps a fairly predictable, erm, prediction, given the ongoing conversation around not only artist royalty payments, but also this year’s Extreme NFT Buzz.
Their piece includes this hypothetical scenario: “In 2022, an NFT-based service takes hold and begins offering music from notable stars – perhaps the likes of Katy Perry, The Chainsmokers and Jason Derulo, all of whom have recently backed an effort to create a new blockchain-powered streaming platform. Other well-known artists begin pulling their music from the now “traditional” streaming platforms, which suddenly find themselves terminally disrupted. Investors see the eventual writing on the wall for podcasts, movies and other forms of digitisable contents as well.”
And the market impact of this rather rapid industry volte-face? “Investors recognise that Spotify’s future is bleak, sending its shares down 33 percent in 2022.” Hmm. Let’s check back in on this one in December 2022…