If labels weren’t already pushing for a share of TikTok’s advertising revenues, they’d certainly be banging on the company’s door after reading the latest predictions from research firm Omdia.
“Online video advertising will generate over $331bn in 2027 and 37% of those revenues will belong to just one company, TikTok,” claimed its latest report. That would be just under $122.5bn, a more than tenfold increase from the $11.6bn that another research firm, Insider Intelligence, predicted that TikTok would make from ads in 2022.
The trouble with advertising forecasts is that these are exceptionally disruptive times, even when looking just five years ahead. In 2017, nobody’s forecasts for 2022 included the impact of a global pandemic, for example.
That’s understandable, but they also wouldn’t have factored in the rise of TikTok (which only really started globally in 2018) or Apple’s Meta-nobbling privacy changes (which were introduced in 2021). We’re hoping there won’t be a Covid-23, 24, 25 or 26 to contend with, but who knows what else might disrupt TikTok’s growth?
Even so, against that backdrop of music-licensing hardball, Omdia’s numbers will be pored over, as well as its accompanying claims about usage.
“In the USA, TikTok has overtaken other social media platforms to become the most popular place to watch videos,” said Omdia’s Maria Rua Aguete. “Last month, our research showed TikTok leapfrogged Netflix to become the second most popular app in the US, with only YouTube retaining the crown for under 35s viewing.”
Alongside these specific TikTok predictions, Omdia has also revealed (to the Financial Times) some estimates around the four biggest tech companies’ ad businesses in 2022.
It reckons that between them, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Apple will account for 68% of the $500bn global (excluding China) online advertising market. But the message is clear: even these giants may need to watch for TikTok in their rear-view mirrors.
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