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Sandbox Issue 258: KIDS’ STUFF. Music’s youngest and most powerful consumers

Lead: we report back on our recent New Kids On The Block: Insight Into A New Generation online conference that we ran in conjunction with UK trade bodies the BPI and ERA, drawing out the 10 key lessons from the different panels and presentations. These include: children are much more active (and increasingly so) than previously presumed; […]

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Covid-19 may spark 56% drop in electronic music industry value

Every year, the IMS Business Report offers a roundup of trends in the electronic music world. This year’s report, published yesterday, adds in data on the impact that the Covid-19 pandemic has had on the sector.

“Dance/Electronic clubs and festivals could lose c.75% of their income in 2020, equivalent to c.$3.3 billion” is one of its sobering conclusions, based on the cancellation of club events and festivals across the world since March 2020.

The report suggests that DJs’ and electronic music artists’ income could fall from $1.1bn in 2029 to $400m in 2020 as a result of Covid-19, while streaming revenues for the dance/electronic category are predicted to rise by 10% – from $1bn in 2019 to $1.1bn in 2020 – which will far from make up for the losses elsewhere.

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IAB report quantifies Covid-19 hit to US podcast ad revenues

Advertising industry body the IAB has published its latest figures on the podcast ads market in the US. “With an expected growth rate of 14.7%, US podcast advertising revenues are nearing the $1bn mark,” it claimed.

Are they really, though? The report doesn’t actually give a figure for its 2020 revenue prediction, but it does for 2019: $708.1m. 14.7% growth on that would mean $812.2m of podcast advertising revenues in 2020. It’s certainly nearer to $1bn than last year, but ‘near’ seems a bit of a stretch.

The report does explain how the IAB has revised its original forecasts for the year though: it expected 29.6% growth for the US podcast ads market this year (which would have taken it to $917.7m) before the Covid-19 pandemic hoved into view, causing many ad campaigns to be put on hold.

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How has the DNA of a music hit changed since the year 2000?

Midia Research’s latest blog post digs in to how the structure of music hits has changed over the past 20 years, albeit with a limited dataset: the Billboard top 10 in July 2000 and July 2020. It offers four main conclusions.

First, songs are shorter overall: a 16% decrease from an average length of four minutes and 22 seconds in 2000 to three minutes and 42 seconds now.

Second, hip-hop accounts for 60% of the top 10 in the 2020 chart, while the 2000 rankings were split evenly between pop, rock and R’n’B.

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Despite Covid-19, US on-demand audio streams are up 16.2%

There’s been a gruesome pull to watching the week-by-week audio stream totals in the US during the Covid-19 pandemic: fretting about the dip in streams in the early weeks of the global crisis, then welcoming their return to growth – while nervously wondering how many people might be thinking of cancelling their paid music subscriptions to cut costs.

Nielsen Music / MRC Data, which provides that weekly data, has now stepped back for a wider view of 2020 so far for music consumption in the US, with its mid-year report. The good news: on-demand audio streams have grown by 16.2% year-on-year to 419.8bn in the first half of 2020.

The report makes it clear that Covid-19 had an impact though. Those streams were up by 20.4% in the period up until 12 March, but the year-on-year growth was 13.8% over the rest of the first half of 2020 – leading to the 16.2% average for the six-month period. Total audio consumption – a metric that covers streams and sales in the US – grew by 9.4%.

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Report: Amazon Music subscriptions grew by 104% in last year

Research firm Counterpoint Research has published its latest estimates for the size of the music streaming market globally. It claims that by the end of March there were 394m music subscriptions globally, representing year-on-year growth of 35%.

Counterpoint also offered its estimates for some of the biggest players, suggesting that Spotify accounted for 33% of subscriptions and 30% of subscription revenues at the end of Q1 2020, followed by Apple Music (21% of subscriptions and 25% of revenue).

Amazon is the big grower though: Counterpoint claimed that its subscriptions more than doubled (104%) year-on-year, while its share of revenues was 12%, ahead of fourth-ranked YouTube Music (9%) and fifth-placed Pandora (5%).